Auf der Suche nach dem "Turbo-Arbeitsmarkt"

Auf der Suche nach dem "Turbo-Arbeitsmarkt": Zwischenbericht an die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) zum Projekt "Restrukturierung des Arbeitsmarktes. Disaggregierte Längsschnittanalysen mit der IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe". Gelsenkirchen: Inst. Arbeit und Technik. Graue Reihe des Instituts Arbeit und Technik, Nr. 2002-03

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Erlinghagen, Marcel / Knuth, Matthias


The transition from an industrial to a service society implies changes in the way the labour market functions. Quite a few authors take it for granted that these changes – along with globalisation, increased competition and shorter innovation cycles – would drive organisations into higher degrees of external-numerical flexibility. As a consequence, job stability is assumed to decline, mobility on the labour market is believed to rise and the risk of unemployment is alleged to proliferate. In this paper, straightforward descriptive methods will be applied to the IAB Employment Subsample, a scientific use file made up of event-history-data, in order to test these assumptions for the West German labour market during the years 1976 to 1995.

It turns out that a general acceleration of the labour market is out of the question. Job mobility, measured as rates of entry into and exits out of employment with individual employers, is found to have been stagnating or even slightly declining since the seventies of the last century. Rather than deteriorating, job stability has actually been improving over time.